Future Changes in Drought Characteristics in the Central Black Sea Region of Türkiye Using HadGEM2-ES Climate Models and the SPI

Abstract

This study investigates future changes in meteorological drought characteristics in the Central Black Sea Region of T & uuml;rkiye (Tokat, & Ccedil;orum, Amasya, Ordu, and Samsun) for the period 2023-2080. Using precipitation projections from the HadGEM2-ES climate model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales. The analysis reveals a reduction in the frequency of near-normal wet conditions, alongside a noticeable increase in the frequency and severity of dry periods, particularly in the inland provinces. Although some coastal areas are projected to receive more precipitation, drought conditions are still expected to intensify, reflecting complex regional responses to climate change. The results of this study are intended to support long-term water resource management, agricultural planning, and climate adaptation efforts in the region.