The High-Impact 2007 Hot Summer over Turkey: Atmospheric-Blocking and Heat-Wave Episodes

Abstract

The 2007 summer was extraordinary in the Balkans and Turkey, with the region experiencing a very hot summer in numerous places, setting all-time maximum temperature records and suffering destructive fires. The heat wave exhibited daily maximum temperature anomalies in excess of 14 °C in some cities. These high-temperature anomalies can be related to a number of concurrent atmospheric and physical factors that induce persistent anticyclones, sea-surface temperature anomalies, reduced precipitation and depleted soil moisture. Prominent atmospheric factors conducive to heat-wave events can serve as a dynamic fingerprint and yield insight into their most important triggering and driving mechanisms. The prolonged atmospheric-blocking high meandering over the central Mediterranean orchestrated the atmospheric circulation and led to the advection of warm air from North Africa to the Balkans and Turkey. The associated large-scale subsidence and clear-sky conditions resulted in temperatures surpassing 40 °C at many places. Atmospheric and physical conditions contributed positively to the very high temperatures and led to two major heat-wave episodes in June and July. Atmospheric-blocking analysis revealed that two blocking episodes accompanied these heat waves. Results from this analysis indicate that the atmospheric blocking was likely responsible for establishing and maintaining the hot-weather conditions. The summer of 2007 may be considered as a strong indicator of what Turkish summers may become in future. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society