Panel Data Analysis of the Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth and Inflation: The Case of Emerging Market Economies

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the impact of external debt on economic growth and inflation for emerging market economies for the period 1995-2020 using the panel data method. To this end, the study used the data on 12 countries listed in the Morgan Stanley Capital Index (MSCI) Emerging Markets Index. The results of the panel cointegration analysis showed that changes in external debt stock affect economic growth in the opposite direction and inflation rate in the same direction. According to the country-specific results of the panel cointegration analysis, external debt had a negative impact on economic growth in all countries except Mexico, Egypt, India, and Turkiye. External debt increased inflation in all countries except China, Egypt, India, South Africa, and Thailand. The Bootstrap panel causality test results showed a unidirectional causality from economic growth to external debt stock in China, India and Thailand, and a bidirectional causality in China. A unidirectional causality was also found from external debt stock to inflation in Colombia, and a unidirectional causality from inflation to external debt in China, India, Peru, and Thailand. Based on the cointegration analysis results, it is recommended that external debt should be used to finance more productive investments in order to ensure sustainable economic growth in Brazil, China, Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, Philippines, South Africa, and Thailand. The panel causality test results also showed that economic growth in China, India, and Thailand requires more external resources. Based on these results, it is recommended to reduce external debt in order to reduce inflation in Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, and Turkiye.