Determination of the Development of Settlements Above Earthquake Susceptibility Classes in Atakum District (Samsun/Türkiye)

Abstract

It is not possible to predict and prevent earthquakes in advance. Until now only a few seconds of time can be saved with prediction studies. Therefore, the most logical solution to overcome earthquakes with the least damage is to implement risk management plans. One of the most important studies carried out within the scope of these plans is to determine the earthquake susceptibility of the regions and accordingly, to identify the suitable areas for new settlements. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the extent of earthquake susceptibility in Atakum district and analyse its impact on the developing urban area. To determine the susceptibility, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) were used. For the application of the AHP method, 6 main geographical factors and 28 sub-factors including lithology, slope, distance to fault lines, landforms, maximum ground acceleration and soil permeability were analysed. The rate of weight was calculated for all factors and an earthquake susceptibility map was produced by weighted overlay. Then, the urban development process of Atakum district was determined with satellite images. In order to examine the development of the urban area on earthquake susceptibility classes in the last 23 years, Landsat 7 ETM for 2000 and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS satellite images for 2013 and 2023 were used. According to the results obtained, the residential areas of Atakum city, especially on the coastline, in the embankment areas and on the alluvial plain floors, are located in the high and very high earthquake susceptibility area.