Trend and Variability Analysis in Rainfall and Temperature Records over Van Province, Türkiye

Abstract

The problem of detecting hydrometeorological trends is still a concern. In this study, monthly, seasonal, and annual temperature and precipitation variations in the Van Province of Turkiye are assessed using both traditional such as Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman's Rho (SRHO) and graphical such as Innovative trend significance test (ITA-ST) and Innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) methods. In order to determine trend slope and change-point detection, Sen's Slope and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests are also used, respectively. The findings show that the MK, SRHO, and ITA-ST approaches detect a decreasing trend for annual total precipitation at the Ercis and Baskale stations. Additionally, the MAM and SON seasons at Ercis and the SON season at Gevas stations also show a noticeably decreasing trend. All stations have an increasing trend at a 95% significant level for annual mean temperatures. Except Gevas station, all four seasons have an increasing trend for temperature series. Results from the IPTA show that for precipitation data, the transition from May to June exhibits the highest trend length. In addition, for temperature data, the minimum trend length and slope are captured in the transition from July to August. In general, ITA-ST and IPTA are superior to MK and SRHO at identifying trends and that the outcomes of these methods are significantly more suitable to visual inspection and linguistic interpretation. Different hydro-climatological variables can be analyzed more flexibly and thoroughly utilizing innovative methodologies.