A New Architecture Selection Strategy in Solving Seasonal Autoregressive Time Series by Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

The only suggestions given in the literature for determining the archi- tecture of neural networks are based on observations, and a simulation study to determine the architecture has not yet been reported. Based on the results of the simulation study described in this paper, a new architecture selection strategy is proposed and shown to work well. It is noted that although in some studies the period of a seasonal time series has been taken as the number of inputs of the neural network model, it is found in this study that the period of a seasonal time series is not a parameter in determining the number of inputs.