Assessment of Biometeorological Conditions in Eastern Mediterranean City Adana, Turkey From Past to the Future

Abstract

Human bioclimatic comfort (HBC) is an important subject of climatology in the field of physical geography. Human bioclimatic comfort (HBC) is the feeling of satisfied and comfortable within the ambient atmospheric thermal environment. Earth climate system has been exposed to changes from the beginning, but since 19th century human - induced factors have contributed to these changes. HBC is the combined effect of atmospheric conditions and affected by all the changes in them. Turkey is among the countries in Mediterranean region, expected to develop higher vulnerabilities to the (bio) climate hazards. Therefore, a Mediterranean city in the south of the country, Adana, was chosen as the study area. HBC assessment was made for the past (1961 - 1990), present (1991 - 2022), near (2030 - 2060) and distant future (2070 - 2100) using hourly - data from the official meteorology station between 1961 and 2022, daily data of the climate model scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) index, the Rayman model and Geographic Information Systems in the spatial distribution of HBC conditions. The analysis showed that the prevalence of "cold" and "cool" stresses has decreased while that of "hot" and "very hot" stresses has increased from the past to the present in Adana. It is predicted that present conditions will continue in the near and distant future, all comfort ranges will increase to the following warm range and the ideal period for HBC conditions will be the winter season. In order to reduce the adverse HBC conditions in cities due to climate change by creating climate resilient, sustainable and healthy cities, urban design and planning principles should be followed from a geographical point of view.