Potential Altitude Change of Oriental Spruce in Türkiye due to Global Climate Change

Abstract

Global climate change stands as the most consequential challenge capable of directly or indirectly impacting Earth's diverse living organisms and ecosystems. This study aims to clarify the shifts in potential distribution areas of the Oriental spruce, a key tree species widely distributed across T & uuml;rkiye, which has been observed to shift its distribution toward higher altitudes in recent decades, deviating from its historical natural range. The investigation delves into the species' viable distribution zones across altitude increments, spanning intervals up to the year 2100, scrutinizing two distinct climate scenarios: SSPs 245 and SSPs 585, referring to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways used in CMIP6 to project greenhouse gas emissions under moderate (SSPs 245) and high (SSPs 585) trajectories. The findings manifest a discernible trend: under the SSPs 245 scenario, there emerges a contraction in suitable zones below 1300 m, accompanied by an upswing above 1300 m. In stark contrast, the SSPs 585 scenario foresees an expansion predominantly within the 1800-2600 m range, juxtaposed with declines across below 1800 m and above 2600 m. In terms of aggregate suitable distribution area, an estimated 13.58% diminution emerges under the SSPs 245 scenario, while a substantial 32.08% reduction surfaces under the SSPs 585 scenario, both by the year 2100. These revelations underscore the imperative for prompt action, not only to safeguard the Oriental spruce but also to inform broader conservation and adaptation efforts in the face of escalating global climate change.