Modern Perspectives on Match Outcomes in Football: Blocked Shots

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of blocked shots on match outcomes in football matches. In the 2023-24 season, the total number of shots, blocked shots, and blocked shot ratios of winning (WT) and losing (LT) teams in the top-tier football leagues of Germany, England, Spain, Italy, Turkey, Argentina, and Brazil were compared and analyzed using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The findings indicate that LT generally had higher blocked shot percentages (BS%) compared to winning teams, while their average number of blocked shots (BS) was lower. The differences in BS% were found to be statistically significant (p<0.05) in the leagues of Germany, England, Spain, Italy, Turkey, and Argentina, whereas no significant difference was observed in the Brazilian league (P=0.69). Regarding BS averages, a statistically significant difference was found only in the Argentine league. Additionally, winning teams were generally found to have a higher total number of shots. This study is the first to evaluate the blocked shot parameter in football in the context of winning and losing from an offensive perspective. It is suggested that teams with lower BS% ratios may have more strategic shot selections, allowing them to bypass defensive blocks more effectively. In this context, blocked shots are not only an indicator of defensive success but also a reflection of the attacking team's deficiencies in positioning and shot quality. Previous literature has primarily considered blocked shots as a result of defensive success. However, this study is the first to reveal that the shots of winning teams were less frequently blocked by losing teams. It is suggested that attacking teams should develop more effective passing organizations and fast passing combinations to minimize the success of the opposing defense in blocking shots.