Determining Climatic Risks in the Eastern Anatolia Region Using the Wind Chill Index, Türkiye

Abstract

Climate has significant impacts on humans in many aspects. Therefore, people have considered climate parameters in various areas of life, as climate influences numerous activities, including economic, social, and physical environmental shaping. Over time, the human population has increasingly concentrated in urban areas compared to rural ones, leading to several issues. Among the most critical issues seen in cities are those related to climate and human health. This situation poses numerous adverse effects on human health. It is known that individuals feel comfortable, safe, and healthy within specific ranges of temperature, humidity, or wind values. The concept of Bioclimatic Comfort, which emerges within this context, is an essential concept for identifying such areas within cities. In this study, the climatic comfort conditions in Turkey's Eastern Anatolia Region were investigated using the Wind Chill Index (WCI). The high altitudes, rugged topography, and harsh climate conditions of the region cause perceived temperatures to drop significantly, particularly during winter, due to low temperatures and high wind speeds. The research was conducted using average minimum monthly temperature and monthly wind speed data obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service for the period from 1991 to 2023, and spatial analyses were performed using ArcGIS Pro software. It was found that perceived temperatures during winter months (December, January, February) ranged from - 10 degrees C to -27 degrees C, falling into the "Moderate Risk" category. In some areas, temperatures dropped further, entering the "High Risk" category. This poses serious health risks, such as frostbite and cold weather shock. During spring, risk levels decreased, and in summer, the risk of cold weather shock almost entirely disappeared. However, in autumn, cold weather risk was observed to rise again. The climatic challenges of the Eastern Anatolia Region have significant impacts on public health and quality of life. This study serves as an essential reference for developing measures against cold weather conditions in the region and ensuring better protection for the local population against these harsh conditions. Future research could contribute to a broader evaluation of climatic risks by comparing the effects of the WCI across different geographical regions.